Portfolio Analytics applies machine learning to a wide array of datasets to calculate the financial impact of climate volatility at the portfolio and asset level.
Our toolkit enhances market forecasts, supports due diligence for underwriting and guides future investment strategies.
Physical Risk & Resilience Adjusted Valuations
Generate Heat Maps
Quantify financial impact both in terms of physical risk and after adjusting for resilience
Quantify Financial Impact
Modify hold/sell periods, protect yield and ensure exit liquidity
Measure Risk and Resilience
Score any location by climate risk (heat, hurricane, flood, fire, drought and sea level rise) and its preparedness to manage disruptions
Multiple Climate Change Scenarios
Deploy the latest IPCC models and multiple RCP/SSP scenarios to forecast impact annually to 2050
Wide Data Approach
Public and private datasets covering climate risk, real estate, socioeconomic, demographic, energy and fiscal data
Target underpriced and resilient markets with a differentiated investment strategy
Quantifying the Financial Impact of Climate Change
Climate Alpha is unique in capturing both the physical climate risk and the resilience-adjusted impact of climate change.
The Physical impact and Resilience-adjusted impact are coefficients that explain the divergence of a location’s financial performance under a given climate scenario from its baseline (one that assumes no climate change).
Physical impact projects the financial impact of physical climate risks under a climate scenario, given as a percentage change from the location's historical baseline performance.
Resilience-adjusted impact modifies Physical Impact with a location's resilience profile in order to capture its capacity to offset climate risks.
Benchmarking Locations to Establish Risk and Resilience Profiles
Different markets respond uniquely to climate hazards and resilience measures.
A location's coefficients are determined by its historic sensitivity to hazards multiplied by its relative risk and resilience profile. The greater the divergence, the higher or lower the coefficients.
Sensitivity to hazards refers to the historical impact of climate hazards on real estate performance. This is calculated by the difference in the ROI of assets in areas exposed to risk versus the mean ROI of its larger real estate market (e.g., Zip codes versus CBSAs).
Relative risk and resilience profile is the future risk and resilience rating of a location indicated by its Z-score against the national distribution obtained by standardizing all indicators.
The greater the divergence from the mean, the better or worse its profile will be.
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change
Both the physical impact and resilience-adjusted impact can be applied to the value of assets to estimate their future economic performance.
For example, if the estimated value of a property is forecasted to be $10M in 2030 based on historical returns, a physical impact coefficient of –5% yields a risk-adjusted value of $9.5M. Yet if the location boasts robust readiness traits to offset climate risk, the resilience-adjusted impact could be just –1%, resulting in a projected 2030 valuation of $9.9M.
Locations that exhibit low risk, high resilience, and proximity to under-performing areas may achieve accelerated growth forecasts as a result of their "anti-fragility," gaining investment and migration at the expense of under-performing areas.