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  • Writer's pictureClimate Alpha

How Climate Change Will Affect the Top 5 New-Home Markets by 2030

Updated: Sep 12, 2023

BUILDER examined the top 5 home building markets using Climate Alpha’s new HOMES tool that forecasts financial gains and losses due to climate change.

It’s didn’t take long for Zonda’s Builder magazine to put Climate Alpha HOMES through its paces. Using our first-of-its-kind climate risk-adjusted valuation tool to fact-check the long-term prospects of the five fastest-growing regions, Builder found that the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro is best poised to thrive in 2030, with a positive price impact due to climate change of 1.2%.

If that weren’t surprising enough, three Texas metros are forecast to suffer negative price impacts: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown (-0.13%); Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington (-1.22%) and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (-7.97%). Taken together, the three demonstrate how America’s urban migration and growth trends will not necessarily last forever, and Houston’s decisively negative score — despite being the #2 market in the country — highlights how severe intra-state and regional differences can be.

See for yourself at homes.climatealpha.ai. Just as Builder felt compelled to stress-test the markets’ best guesses on the most valuable communities of 2030, out institutional clients are checking to see how much their portfolio assessments differ from our projection. Don’t wait for a climate disaster to reveal the gap between paper valuations and climate realities. Contact us to learn more about both our residential HOMES product and our more robust solutions for institutional investors.

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